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Ice and fire double sky! The battery industry chain impacted by the epidemic will accelerate the reshuffle

时间:2020-04-20        阅读

A sudden outbreak of COVID-19 disrupted the development expectations of several industries in the first quarter, and the new energy vehicle and power battery industries that had been in full swing were not spared. Recently, the data on the production and sales of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of power batteries in the first quarter of this year have been released one after another. The decline in production and sales and installed capacity is "no surprise", and the performance of enterprises in the industrial chain has also changed. A few days ago, according to the data released by China Automobile Association, in the first quarter of this year, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles were 105000 and 114000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 60.2% and 56.4% respectively. According to the data of power battery application branch, the installed power battery capacity of new energy vehicles in China in the first quarter of this year was 5.68gwh, a year-on-year decrease of 53.84% compared with 12.31gwh in the same period of 2019. Delayed resumption of work and obvious order


冰火两重天!受疫情冲击的电池产业链将加速洗牌


Data source: power battery application branch (unit: MWh)

In the first quarter of this year, 49 battery manufacturers had new energy vehicles equipped with power batteries, which was further reduced compared with 53 in the same period last year, and only 8 had year-on-year growth in installed capacity; Among the top 10 in installed capacity, only LG Chemical and Tafel increased year-on-year, and the rest fell sharply.




The impact of the "black swan" of the COVID-19 far exceeded people's expectations. The situation in the first quarter of this year was very special and could not be analyzed according to the normal situation. However, the impact of the epidemic on the industry is also very obvious: it will accelerate the industrial reshuffle.




On the one hand, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, it is difficult for the downstream automotive market demand to make a significant change in the short term, which will curb the demand for power batteries. Whether the installed capacity of power batteries can increase this year is still unknown. For some small and medium-sized battery enterprises, if the long-term orders are insufficient or too few, the operating pressure will increase.




On the other hand, the COVID-19 has led to a significant reduction in enterprise revenue, a disguised increase in enterprise operating costs, and enterprises with greater financial pressure may face the risk of market adjustment.




How big is the impact of the epidemic on enterprises? We can also get a general understanding through the financial statements of listed companies. Recently, the battery industry chain has successively released the first quarter financial reports, and the decline in net profit has become the main tone.




Upstream resources: cobalt, lithium, ice and fire




In terms of lithium resources, the net profits of the two domestic giants also fell sharply in the first quarter. Among them, Ganfeng lithium expects that the company will achieve a net profit of 7million yuan to 10million yuan in the first quarter of this year, compared with 253million yuan in the same period of last year, which is expected to drop by 96-97% year-on-year; Tianqi lithium predicts that the company lost 450million yuan to 510million yuan in the first quarter of this year, while the company gained 111million yuan in the same period last year.




The two lithium resource giants had a hard time in the first quarter, and the reasons were similar. In addition to the main impact of the COVID-19, in terms of "minor differences", Ganfeng lithium suffered losses from changes in the fair value of the current period due to the decline in the stock price of its financial assets, thereby affecting the company's profits; The Australian dollar exchange rate of Tianqi lithium fell sharply against the US dollar, resulting in a significant increase in the amount of exchange loss of financial expenses in the current period compared with the same period of the previous year.




Another battery resource giant, Huayou cobalt, is relatively comfortable. With the relative stabilization of the price of cobalt products, the gross profit margin of cobalt products began to rise. Huayou cobalt industry expects a net profit of 184million yuan in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 1385.10% year-on-year.




Battery material: decline is still the main theme. New Zeus benefits from epidemic prevention




In the first quarter, the impact of COVID-19 mainly impacted the market at home, while foreign production was still normal. Xinzhoubang said that due to the growth of international customer orders for lithium battery chemicals in the first quarter and the substantial growth of sales of fluoropharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates and environmental friendly fluorosurfactants in the domestic and overseas markets of organic fluorochemicals required for epidemic prevention, the company's net profit in the first quarter is expected to be between 86.928 million yuan and 99.3462 million yuan, an increase of 40% - 60% over the same period of the previous year.




In terms of cathode materials, enterprises such as dangsheng technology and Xiangtan electrochemical Co., Ltd. said that due to the epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia, the sales volume and revenue of lithium cathode materials decreased, resulting in a decline in profits. Among them, dangsheng technology expects the net profit in the first quarter of this year to decline by 53.19% - 45.39% year on year, and the net profit is in the range of 30million yuan - 35million yuan; Xiangtan Dianhua is expected to decrease by 63.97% - 72.29% compared with the same period of the previous year, and its net profit will be in the range of 5million yuan - 6.5 million yuan.




In terms of diaphragms, both Xingyuan material and Enjie said that the demand of downstream customers was reduced due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales volume did not meet expectations, and the net profit would decline significantly. Among them, the net profit of Xingyuan material in the first quarter of this year is expected to decrease by 80.31% - 67.19% year-on-year, in the range of 15million yuan - 25million yuan; It is estimated that the net profit of Enjie in the first quarter of this year decreased by 38.00% - 25.00% compared with the same period of last year, to 132million yuan - 160million yuan.




Lithium battery equipment: Yinghe technology mask machine business has formed a new increment




In terms of lithium battery equipment, in the first quarter of this year, Yinghe technology signed a new lithium battery order of more than 1billion yuan. In addition, it actively responded to the government's call to help the anti epidemic prevention and control work, launched the automatic production line of mask machine and the mask OEM business, forming a business increment. The company expects the net profit in the first quarter to be 150million yuan - 170million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.12% - 140.41%.




According to pioneer intelligence, in the first quarter of this year, the company continued the high-intensity R & D investment since last year, and the proportion of R & D expenses in the total operating revenue increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. In addition, the new orders signed in the first quarter were orders with low gross profit, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin compared with the same period of last year. The company expects that the net profit in the first quarter will decrease by 35% - 55% year-on-year, and the profit will be in the range of 87.2534 million yuan - 126.0326 million yuan.




As the prevention and control of COVID-19 in China has achieved good results, production in various industries is gradually resuming. According to the data in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in that month were 50000 and 53000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 381.6% and 301.3% respectively; In terms of power batteries, the installed capacity of power batteries in the month reached 2.77gwh, with a significant increase of 363.8% month on month. The new energy vehicle and power battery industry is gradually recovering. It is expected that the whole industry chain will gradually return to normal, and the relevant data will gradually return to normal.




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